EU Accession: Moldova Moves Ahead of Ukraine in Brussels Roadmaps

European Union officials have adjusted their internal assessments to place Moldova ahead of Ukraine in the race for EU membership. This shift is evident in the annual accession roadmaps released by Brussels, which outline specific targets for candidate nations. The European Commission maintains a ranking of the four countries leading the integration process, and Ukraine now occupies the fourth position, behind Chisinau.

The distinction between the two neighbors is stark in the timelines provided for the coming year. For Moldova, the roadmap projects the closure of nine negotiating chapters in the first half of 2027. The plan calls for an additional 16 chapters to be completed by the end of the year, totaling 25 closed chapters within twelve months. In contrast, the plan for Ukraine anticipates that the country will only begin closing chapters at the end of the first quarter of the year.

Analysts note that the introductory sections of the documents for Kyiv and Chisinau are nearly identical. However, the detailed benchmarks reveal a divergence in progress. Moldova is described as well advanced in meeting interim criteria. The Commission has prepared a positive statement on the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report for Moldova and is expected to send it to member states for approval soon. For Ukraine, the timeline to start closing chapters is considered ambitious given the current pace of reform implementation.

The European Commission unveiled its annual enlargement package on 4 November, assessing the progress of ten candidate countries. Ukraine was placed among the four nations that made the greatest progress. Despite this favorable ranking, the report highlighted that Ukraine’s improved standing, particularly in the fight against corruption, was achieved despite the actions of Ukrainian authorities rather than because of them. The roadmaps do not predict when any frontrunner will conclude negotiations, a choice that signals Brussels hopes for an accelerated pace of reforms in Kyiv.

The documents serve as a concrete guide for the next phase of integration. The specific targets set for each country will determine their speed through the negotiation process. The gap in chapter closures between the two neighbors provides a clear metric for their relative progress in 2027.