Brent crude holds near $115 as Iran vows policy consistency amid US strike threats

Global energy consumers continue to face elevated costs as Brent crude prices remained near $115 per barrel early Monday. This stability in the market follows a weekend of mixed signals from Washington and Tehran regarding the ongoing conflict. The price point reflects persistent supply concerns driven by the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, just as Northern Hemisphere winter approaches and gas demand typically rises.

The uncertainty stems directly from President Donald Trump's recent comments. In an interview on Fox News' 'Sunday Morning Futures,' he stated, 'I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?' He previously suggested the U.S. might launch another 'Epic Fury' operation, referencing the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that started on Feb. 28. Trump also claimed the U.S. now controls the Strait of Hormuz. Speculation has grown that new strikes could be ordered after next Tuesday's midterm elections, although additional U.S. forces, including a third aircraft carrier group, have already been deployed to the region.

Iranian officials responded that their strategic thinking has not shifted. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a televised audience in Tehran, 'Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same.' He added that Washington and Israel had tried twice already and 'will achieve no different outcome.' Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that indirect contacts with the U.S. are still under way via intermediaries, despite direct talks appearing stalled for weeks. The ministry stated that the election result 'makes no difference' to Tehran.

Physical disruptions in shipping have heightened market anxiety. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile on Friday, disabling the vessel. The crew was reported safe. Iran claimed to have struck at least four tankers near the strait on Thursday, but those claims were not corroborated. Trump accused Tehran of inventing such attacks to push up prices before the midterms.

Regional powers are attempting to ease tensions through diplomatic channels. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin were scheduled to arrive in Tehran on Monday. They were due to hold security talks with Iranian officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the visit supports de-escalation and backs mediation by Qatar and Pakistan. These talks follow eight months of war in the region.

Violence continued in Yemen as the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh. The coalition also destroyed two missile launchers in Sanaa. The Iran-backed Houthi group claimed it hit Riyadh's international airport with a missile hours after flights resumed. They also said they struck oil pumping stations with drones. Earlier attacks this month had closed the airport for more than two weeks and forced Saudi Arabia to postpone its flagship investment conference until 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran and its proxies might attack to disrupt Tuesday's elections. He told the public, 'Don't test us.' Defense Minister Israel Katz rejected a Channel 12 report of a clash between Netanyahu and army chief Eyal Zamir over a new directive, calling the story 'entirely baseless.' Netanyahu had previously dismissed the report as 'rubbish.'