Israel Election: White House Plans Shift if Netanyahu Loses

Advisers to US President Donald Trump are preparing to work with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political rivals if he loses the upcoming election, according to US officials. The group is optimistic about the potential for cooperation with the opposition bloc, a stance that contrasts with the administration's previous close ties to the incumbent.

The push for a pivot gained traction this week when Vice President JD Vance declined to publicly support the prime minister. Vance told reporters, "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters." This hesitation followed reports that many of the president's closest advisers opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu, arguing he should have stayed out of the Israeli election entirely.

Tensions within the administration over Israeli policy have also surfaced recently. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack raised concerns about the Netanyahu government's approach to Syria. After Israeli strikes targeted a base in Syria's northern Idlib province, Barrack called the attack an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team have maintained a closer relationship with the prime minister but hold differing views on specific issues. They believe Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon's government. The State Department team has also expressed frustration with what they view as Netanyahu's failure to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.

The internal deliberations come as Netanyahu's polling position weakens ahead of the October 27 vote. A recent Maariv poll showed the opposition bloc widening its lead to 54 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc dropped to 48. The survey also indicated that 60% of respondents would prefer a unity government if the election fails to produce a clear governing majority.

Among those favoring a unity government, 33% wanted a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead it, compared with 19% who preferred Netanyahu. Another 8% supported a unity government regardless of leadership. In a head-to-head matchup for prime minister, Benny Gantz, known as Eisenkot in the poll context, led Netanyahu with 49% support against 41% for the incumbent.

The White House team is monitoring these numbers closely as the election approaches in three days. The shift in sentiment suggests a potential change in diplomatic engagement depending on the outcome of the vote.