David Mansfield Identifies 9,000 Hectares of New Opium Production in Balochistan

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan’s illicit drugs industry, has confirmed that more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation now exist in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. This finding, based on an August report for the British firm Alcis, marks a substantial shift in the geography of global opium production since the Taliban imposed a wide-ranging ban on narcotics in 2022.

The Taliban’s 2022 prohibition initially caused a steep drop in Afghan output, which had long been the world’s largest. However, cultivation has not disappeared entirely. Instead, production has migrated across borders into neighboring Pakistan and Iran. Mansfield, author of A State Built On Sand: How Opium Undermined Afghanistan, describes the resulting tri-border area as a new global center for opium production.

The expansion is concentrated in Pakistan’s Balochistan and Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan provinces. Satellite imagery shows most of the 9,000 hectares in Balochistan are located in the Loralai and Killa Abdullah districts. In Iran, Sistan-Baluchistan remains the primary producing region, with cultivation also reported in Razavi Khorasan, Kermanshah, Lorestan, and Fars.

Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, alleges that senior military officials and pro-government power brokers support the growth by taking commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district’s chief administrative officer, disputes this, claiming cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year. Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of such eradication in the area.

Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand are driving the surge in Pakistan. They cross the border to lease land, bringing capital and expertise. They invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of Killa Abdullah, noted that poppy demand and income have surpassed those of traditional fruit farming, which has been devastated by drought and flash floods.

A similar tenant system exists in Iran, where Afghan farmers work as sharecroppers using family ties. Satellite images from 2026 reveal extensive fields in Sistan-Baluchistan, some equipped with drip irrigation. This costly infrastructure suggests growers planted in late 2025 expecting low risk of eradication. Iranian authorities, preoccupied with the war against the United States and Israel since late February, have been unable or unwilling to destroy the current crop.

Inside Afghanistan, production is rebounding despite the ban. Cultivation is concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province, estimated to account for half of national output, and in several southwestern provinces. Mansfield stated that southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. Farmers often conceal poppy plants within wheat fields or behind compound walls to avoid detection.

Many farmers in the region doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield called this a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027. He warned that a recent Taliban directive barring home searches for poppy without a court order may encourage further expansion. He noted that if farmers interpret this as tolerance for cultivation beyond walled compounds, Afghanistan could see a dramatic rise in opium production next year.

Armed groups in the region compete for tax revenues from the drugs trade and other cross-border activities, including people smuggling and the trade in fuel and minerals. The increase in production both reflects and fuels this violence, according to Mansfield. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has acknowledged spillover effects, though it estimates Pakistan’s total production remains marginal due to scarce regional data.