Analysts predict third U.S. Iran war to begin after November 3 votes

Analysts expect the United States and Israel to restart military operations against Iran immediately following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. This prediction follows two previous conflicts that resulted in heavy casualties and ongoing economic strain across the Gulf region. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, described a renewed war as almost inevitable.

The timeline of hostilities began in June 2025 with American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. That first conflict lasted 12 days and ended in a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February after a large U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli attacks on Iran's senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes on territory, though the conflict remains active.

Citrinowicz expects the third round of fighting to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications networks, including internet lines beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also noted that Iran might send parts of its land army into limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to damage the American economy. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran continues to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump accused Iran on Truth Social on Thursday of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms. He claimed the country was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands. These demands include sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium.

Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation would likely come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. He argued that diplomacy is narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims but not dead.

The human toll is substantial. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. Sadjadpour said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit, noting that asking them to change their identity will not succeed.