46.3 Percent: Poll Shows Bolsonaro Narrowly Ahead of Lula in Final Hours

A new poll released on Saturday places Flavio Bolsonaro 1.3 percentage points ahead of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the final hours before Brazil's presidential run-off.

The CNT/MDA survey, conducted with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, shows Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent. A week earlier, the same polling firm reported Bolsonaro leading 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. The results suggest the race remains statistically tied, following a first round where Bolsonaro captured 47 percent of the vote against Lula's 45 percent.

The two candidates held final campaign rallies on Saturday. Lula, 80, addressed hundreds of supporters from a campaign truck at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat and waving a national flag, he contrasted his rival with the incumbent administration in the United States. "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag," Lula said. He is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term as president.

Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, campaigned in the state of Minas Gerais. Hundreds of supporters, many riding motorcycles and wearing yellow national football shirts, attended the gathering. Ebert Dorigo, a supporter, told the news agency AFP that Lula's Workers' Party had fostered dependence on state welfare. "The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said. He argued that the country requires a shift away from policies that he believes discourage hard work.

The campaign has been defined by sharp disagreements over economic policy, crime, and political direction. Bolsonaro has promised to add hundreds of thousands of prison beds and reduce government spending. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his 2022 defeat. The two candidates held a final debate on Friday, maintaining a calmer tone than earlier exchanges while still criticizing each other's records.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult for many voters. "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil," she told AFP. Brazilians will vote on Sunday to determine the country's next president.