Gulf States Face Strategic Reassessment After US Midterm Defeat

President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran likely contributed to his party's significant defeat in the US midterm elections held this week. Speaking to Fox News, Trump stated that while voters appreciated his actions regarding Iran, they were reluctant to accept the resulting impact on fuel prices. This admission highlights the growing domestic political cost of the ongoing military conflict.

Analysts note that both the United States and Israel had strategically delayed major strikes on Iran until after their respective elections. Reports from late October indicated that the administration was warning Gulf state governments to prepare for a brief but intense military campaign following the midterms. Now that the election cycle has concluded, the question of whether conflict will escalate remains a central concern for regional leaders.

Political science experts suggest that Trump, now a lame duck president facing a Democratic-controlled Congress, may increase international interventions to secure his legacy. Two professors writing for Foreign Affairs magazine argued that presidents in this position often act with greater freedom in foreign policy, bypassing domestic political constraints. Despite this tendency, Trump has told several media outlets that he is in no rush to resume bombing Iran.

Opinions on Iran's next steps are divided. Senior Iranian leaders have indicated readiness for further attacks, potentially targeting a wider array of assets including regional energy infrastructure, undersea telecommunications cables, and data centers. Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, warned that if Iran perceives an existential threat to its leadership, it may target Gulf states differently this time. Conversely, other experts believe Iran may now be more willing to negotiate a peace deal since the pressure of the US election has passed.

The Gulf states, which have been primary targets of Iranian attacks since the conflict began, find themselves in a precarious position. Anwar Gargash, a foreign policy adviser to the United Arab Emirates leadership, stated at the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain that the region is seeking a political off-ramp from a crisis it worked hard to avert. Meanwhile, Qatar has been mediating between the US and Iran while conducting emergency airport drills, and Saudi Arabia faces a two-front challenge involving the Houthi militia in Yemen.

The conflict has already strained relationships between the Gulf states and the United States. Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Bloomberg that there is widespread regional disappointment with Washington's conduct and its prioritization of Israel's defense over that of its Gulf partners. He suggested that the 2026 war could be remembered as the moment that undid America's established role in the region, similar to how the 1991 liberation of Kuwait cemented it.

In response, Gulf nations are expanding their strategic outreach to achieve greater autonomy. The UAE is moving closer to Israel, while Saudi Arabia is entering a defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey. Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, wrote that the Gulf states are already moving toward strategic self-reliance, a process that a lame-duck Trump presidency is likely to accelerate. Krieg argued that these states should pressure the US to halt attacks and negotiate a non-aggression pact with Iran independently.

However, achieving meaningful unity among Gulf states remains difficult. Ryan Crocker, a former US ambassador and distinguished fellow at the Middle East Institute, expressed doubt about immediate Gulf cooperation. He pointed to lingering mistrust between Qatar and other states following the 2017 diplomatic crisis, as well as known differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding their positions in Sudan, Yemen, and relations with Israel. Crocker concluded that he does not expect significant moves toward unified Gulf security cooperation in the near future.

In the long term, experts believe Gulf states will eventually need to establish a relationship with Iran to secure their safety. Harrison noted that geography makes a relationship with Tehran inevitable, as the Gulf states cannot buy their security solely from Washington. The primary concern for leaders now is preventing the conflict from escalating to a point where the path to diplomacy is permanently lost.