Poll: Two-Thirds of Shiites Want State Arms Control

Lebanese Shi'ites are increasingly questioning Hezbollah's hold on national security, according to a new survey that marks a shift from previous sentiment. The data, released in mid-October, indicates that a majority of the community now supports transferring the group's weapons to the Lebanese state.

Statistics Lebanon conducted the poll in September among 800 Shi'ite respondents. The results show that 66.4% supported handing over Hezbollah's arsenal to the state, while 29.6% preferred the group retain its weapons. This contrasts with the group's long-standing argument that its arms are essential for defending against Israel. The findings were reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

The survey also measured public trust in security institutions. Approximately 78.5% of respondents expressed trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces, and 51.1% identified the army as the best entity to guarantee long-term security. Only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. Additionally, 71.1% said decisions on war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state, while just 5.9% wanted Hezbollah's leadership to play a larger role in the country's future.

Sentiment toward the group's recent performance was mixed. Some 67.4% of respondents said Hezbollah failed or only partially met its goals in the war with Israel. Another 42.1% voiced disappointment or anger regarding the group's leadership. Despite this criticism, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the organization, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust. KAN correspondent Roi Kais noted that Hezbollah's social and economic networks continue to sustain its influence, provided no other entity fills the political vacuum.

The current findings differ sharply from an earlier May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That study, cited in a June 10 analysis by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, found that 87.5% of Shi'ites opposed disarming Hezbollah. The discrepancy has raised questions about how polling wording influences results. Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to replace the services the group provides.

Local wariness is also evident in specific regions. In Tyre, property owners reportedly blocked the opening of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan branch in their building, fearing it might become a target for Israeli strikes. Such institutions have been hit in previous conflicts. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

Hezbollah has suffered major losses since the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war began in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in southern villages. The group's future strength may depend on whether the Lebanese state can provide security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to the community.