SpaceX shares rally as analysts lift targets on $14.6B quarter

The aerospace and artificial intelligence sector has seen a significant shift in valuation expectations following a decisive earnings report from SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX). After the company disclosed third-quarter 2026 results following the market close on October 20, Wall Street analysts moved quickly to revise their price targets upward, citing a performance that far exceeded consensus benchmarks.

SpaceX reported total revenue of $14.6 billion, marking a 161 percent year-over-year increase and significantly outpacing the roughly $12.7 billion expected by the market. The company’s financial health improved markedly, with net profit reaching $4.4 billion compared to a loss in the same period the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA also climbed to $8.8 billion, signaling improved operational efficiency and profitability across its diverse business units.

The most substantial growth driver was the Super Intelligence division, which generated approximately $7.6 billion in revenue. This segment grew nearly 830 percent year-over-year, becoming the largest contributor to the company's top line. The Connectivity segment also performed strongly, delivering $5.2 billion in revenue as the Starlink consumer base expanded to 13.6 million subscribers, supported by continued satellite deployment and enterprise momentum.

Management provided guidance that further excited investors, with CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlining first-quarter 2027 revenue projections of $33 billion to $37 billion. This forecast was considerably higher than the approximately $22 billion previously modeled by analysts. Additionally, the company announced fourth-quarter capital expenditure plans ranging from $35 billion to $40 billion, primarily earmarked for AI compute infrastructure at locations including Memphis and Southaven. Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by the end of the year, with pathways to exceed 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027.

In response to these figures, major financial institutions adjusted their outlooks. JPMorgan more than doubled its price target to $500 from $240, maintaining an Overweight rating. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $345 from $246, while Barclays and Morgan Stanley both set targets at $300, with Barclays increasing its rating from $254. Citi, UBS, and TD Cowen also lifted their targets to $240, $230, and $224, respectively. Other firms, including Wells Fargo and Clear Street, adjusted their estimates higher to $274 and $248, reflecting broad confidence in the company’s long-term earnings power.

Shares of SpaceX, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped approximately 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21. Investors are digesting the strong quarterly print alongside the company’s strategic focus on accelerating AI compute expansion and Starship milestones. While the aggressive spending plans remain a point of focus for some, the overall market reaction indicates growing conviction in the company's trajectory across its launch, connectivity, and AI businesses.