120,000 New Ballots May Shift Knesset Balance

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a contest where demographic shifts carry direct electoral weight. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This cohort represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choices could decide up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the IDI's education policy program, stated that the institute co-sponsored a pre-election event with the Yigal Allon Center. She noted that Israel's high birth rate means this young demographic holds substantial political power if turnout remains high. IDI research suggests strong participation is likely. Hoffman explained, "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference."

Pre-election surveys indicate high confidence among this group. In May, the IDI found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain they would vote, with another 19% likely to participate. This projected engagement contrasts with the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 US presidential election.

Economic and security concerns drive the agenda for these voters. Both IDI and Ynet polls identified national security and the cost of living as the top priorities for Jewish and Arab youth. Hoffman attributed this focus to their recent experiences, including the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the events of October 7. She summarized, "They are worried about their future."

Political alignment among this group is complex. An N12 poll from September 23 showed 74% of young people identifying as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same survey, 16% planned to vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, and 14% for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman observed that military service often pushes Jewish voters toward the center or left by prompting questions about war objectives, counteracting a long-term rightward shift in the country.

Individual voters illustrate this diversity. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to support the opposition change bloc. She is likely to back the Democrats led by Yair Golan or Yashar. She cited the need to change the country's future. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem in an army preparation program, will vote for Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist party. He supports the party's West Bank policies despite disagreements over Gaza, stating, "We need a strong, secure Israel."

Other voters prioritize specific policy changes. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzliya, supports the change bloc and seeks mandatory IDF service for ultra-Orthodox men. A 22-year-old reservist identified as Sgt. M will vote for the Democrats primarily due to economic costs, including tuition and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, seeks an Arab party that addresses resource gaps and crime. He said, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."