Israel Election: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner

Israel’s wartime election ended in a stalemate on Tuesday. Exit polls from two major television networks gave Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp. A third network, Channel 13, reported the two sides were tied. Neither group secured the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The deadlock represents a setback for Netanyahu. His coalition held 68 seats in the outgoing parliament. Projections show that number dropping sharply. If the polls hold, Netanyahu may remain in power as a caretaker while coalition negotiations unfold.

Voter turnout reached 77.7%, the highest level in more than two decades. This figure is approximately seven percentage points higher than in the 2022 election. The Central Elections Committee confirmed the numbers. The vote is the first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

The far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are projected to win a combined 13 seats within Netanyahu’s bloc. Arab parties, which sit outside the two main camps, may hold the balance of power. Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, has largely ruled out forming a government with these Arab parties. This complication makes his path to power difficult even in scenarios where his bloc finishes ahead.

Eisenkot, 66, emerged as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger. He entered politics four years ago and joined the war cabinet after the 2023 attacks. He quit eight months later to criticize the prime minister’s leadership. Eisenkot lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He opposes Palestinian statehood and argues that Hamas’ military wing must be destroyed. He describes Israel’s response as a failure because Hamas remains in charge.

Yair Lapid, the opposition leader, called the result a crushing defeat for Netanyahu. In a statement, he said the public had told Netanyahu’s camp to go home. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party and a rival to Netanyahu, told a rally that the nation had given them a sacred duty to fortify democracy.

At the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth, candidates celebrated with whistles and applause. Faten Gattas, a candidate in the alliance, said in a speech that they refuse occupation and racism. The high participation rate among Palestinian citizens of Israel gives the group potential leverage to prevent Netanyahu’s coalition from returning to power.

Netanyahu, 77, has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years. He entered the election facing corruption charges that he denies. He also faced criticism over intelligence failures during the 2023 attacks. Netanyahu campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump. He argued that he had made Israel safer by assassinating top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Final results could take days to count. No single party has ever won 61 seats outright in the Knesset. The fragmented political system means smaller parties will likely act as kingmakers. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, called the polls a major defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition but cautioned that much could change as votes are tallied.